The World Lost the Climate Gamble. Now it Faces a Dangerous New Reality

The authors reflect on the decade since the 2015 Paris Agreement and conclude that humanity has failed to avert dangerous climate change, with global warming set to exceed 1.5°C and enter an overshoot phase within years. This escalation increases the frequency and severity of extreme events and risks triggering tipping points in major Earth systems such as the Amazon rainforest and polar ice sheets, creating existential threats for billions. The analysis warns of feedback loops that could lead to a “hothouse Earth” scenario and highlights that significant impacts are now unavoidable, including storms, social instability, and disruption of decarbonisation efforts. However, the authors stress that overshoot can still be minimized through immediate global action: accelerating fossil fuel phase-out to achieve at least 5% annual emission reductions, transforming food systems to absorb carbon, deploying safe carbon removal strategies, and safeguarding nature’s resilience.