The Implications of Overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth System Tipping Elements—a Review

The authors review how minimising the magnitude and duration of any temperature overshoot beyond 1.5 °C could decrease tipping risks for multiple Earth system tipping elements. They find that fast-responding systems such as coral reefs are especially vulnerable even to brief overshoots, while slow-responding systems such as polar ice sheets may avoid tipping if the overshoot is sufficiently short and modest, with additional anthropogenic pressures and interactions between tipping elements further lowering thresholds. To advance risk assessment, the authors propose deriving simplified process-based dynamics from complex Earth System Models, integrating these into efficient climate models for a probabilistic tipping framework, and extending the framework to include spatially explicit tipping dynamics. They conclude that urgent climate action is required to minimise tipping risks.