Sky-High Oil Prices. A Fertilizer Shortage. Now Add a “Super El Niño.”

This article argues that the war involving Iran, particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil and fertilizer prices, triggering supply shortages that threaten global agricultural production just as climate pressures intensify. The anticipated arrival of a strong or “super” El Niño is expected to further disrupt weather patterns, compounding droughts, floods, and declining crop yields. Together, these overlapping shocks unfold as a polycrisis, amplifying economic strain, food insecurity, and political instability, and illustrating how crises across systems become entangled and produce impacts greater than their individual effects. The article calls for integrated, cross-sectoral responses, warning that without urgent action, manageable shocks may escalate into systemic breakdowns.