Polycrisis in Agrifood Systems: Climate-Conflict Interactions and Labor Dynamics for Women and Youth in 21 African Countries

This paper examines how armed conflict and climate change jointly affect individual labour intensity in 21 African countries. Using labour force surveys alongside climate and conflict event data, the study finds that extreme climate events have more severe negative impacts in regions already affected by conflict. These compounded effects, framed as a climate-conflict polycrisis, disproportionately affect young people and are linked to prior conflict exposure rather than simultaneous events. The study also reveals that conflict intensifies gendered shifts in labour, increasing women’s work burden during climate shocks. The findings underscore the need for targeted, evidence-based policies that address the intersection of climate change and conflict, with a focus on age- and gender-specific vulnerabilities.