Polycrisis and the Thucydides Trap. In: War and the World Economy

In this chapter, William Jefferies examines polycrisis as a framework for understanding the interconnected and compounding challenges facing the contemporary world—including environmental degradation, economic inequality, geopolitical tensions, and democratic backsliding. Situating these developments in the post-Cold War era, the chapter critically engages with the ideological legacy of Francis Fukuyama’s “End of History” thesis and the diverse interpretations of scholars such as Nouriel Roubini, Adam Tooze, and Niall Ferguson, who—despite differing political orientations—share the view that the root causes of today’s crises remain elusive. The chapter also explores the “Thucydides Trap” narrative used to frame U.S.–China relations, suggesting that while large-scale conflict may not be inevitable, the structural drivers of political and economic tension persist. Jefferies concludes that although current polycrisis do not yet directly challenge the capitalist world order, they may carry the potential to do so over time.