Polycrisis and Long-Term Thinking: Reimagining Development in Asia and the Pacific Foresight Brief

This Foresight Brief argues that conventional risk management frameworks cannot grapple with the growing number of systemic and existential risks generated by decades of globalization. Instead, these risks require more long-term thinking – “intentional consideration of what might happen in the future, the choices for influencing it and the consequences of those choices” (p. 10). The Brief then recommends: embedding long-term thinking into political mandates and structures through such measures as a Future Generations Commissioner; applying long-term and anticipatory thinking to evolve planning and governance models, using such methods as strategic foresight; impact assessment methods to support long-term thinking in policies and programs, with such measures as lowered discount rates; and supporting long-term thinking in the private sector by changing incentives.