Opportunities for Pathways Approaches for Adapting to Complex Climate Change Risks

The authors examine how adaptation pathways can be extended to address complex climate change risks arising from interactions among compounding hazards, cascading impacts, dynamic vulnerabilities, infrastructure interdependencies, and governance failures. They argue that conventional adaptation approaches are often poorly suited to non-linear, deeply uncertain, and potentially irreversible risk conditions, and identify three areas where pathways approaches offer particular promise: collaborative learning that incorporates diverse knowledge and addresses power asymmetries; planning for climate overshoot, tipping points, and changing risk regimes; and transformational recovery following escalating loss and damage. Drawing on examples from Malawi, Germany, and Libya, the article shows how these dimensions can interact across sectors and governance scales, and proposes treating pathways not simply as technical planning tools but as governance mechanisms capable of integrating adaptation, mitigation, development, and justice. The authors conclude that stronger integration of collaborative learning, overshoot planning, and transformational recovery can help societies avoid maladaptive lock-in and pursue more inclusive, flexible, and resilient responses to increasingly complex climate risks.