Mapping Emerging Critical Risks

This paper reviews the findings of a pilot online mapping exercise of emerging risks conducted by the OECD High-Level Risk Forum. Nearly half of the risks shortlisted during the first stage were related to socio-environmental issues, including extreme temperatures and heatwaves, drinking water scarcity, the spread of vector-borne diseases to new areas, climate change-induced mass displacements, and the impact of droughts on vital services and critical systems. The findings reveal both areas of consensus and gaps in current foresight, underscoring the need for a more anticipatory and inclusive approach to risk identification. The paper emphasizes that emerging risks often evolve rapidly and can destabilize economies and societies if left unaddressed, highlighting the importance of adopting continuous, forward-looking, and diversified risk mapping practices.