Managing Foreign Policy Complexity under Polycrisis: A Conceptual Analysis of Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence

This paper argues that the polycrisis exceeds the analytical capacity of traditional diplomatic institutions. The author contends that the ability to manage complexity has become an important source of geopolitical advantage, though the polycrisis has not replaced the older logics of expansion and dominance. The paper examines how artificial intelligence can strengthen the analytical and operational functions of foreign ministries, while warning that AI introduces new risks, including the complexity paradox, complexity displacement, crisis-driven entrenchment, and epistemic monoculture. It advocates for augmented diplomacy, in which AI supplements, rather than replaces, human political judgment.