Four Global Risk Trends Likely to Shape the Planet through 2030

This article argues that the most consequential risks of the coming years will emerge not from individual crises but from their interaction, eroding trust and fragmenting systems. It identifies four risk trends likely to shape the path to 2030: the emergence of an increasingly polycentric world as US global leadership becomes more selective; a deepening legitimacy crisis for democracy driven by declining institutional performance rather than constitutional design; the incremental fragmentation of the global monetary system as countries diversify away from the US dollar; and a growing societal backlash against technology, driven not only by job displacement but by concerns over occupational identity, infrastructure costs, and AI governance. The article concludes that politicians and other leaders must be prepared, as this convergence of risks has, in many ways, already arrived.