Flattening the Curve on Societal Crisis: Lessons from History

The authors argue that today’s polycrisis, marked by climate change, inequality, and institutional fragility, echoes recurrent structural challenges seen throughout history. While most historical crises led to violence and collapse, a small number were successfully averted through transformative reforms. Drawing on these rare cases, the authors outline three critical policy lessons: reverse rising inequality to restore balance in material and social well-being; expand fiscal and bureaucratic state capacity to meet collective needs; and foster future-oriented thinking among elites, encouraging them to prioritize long-term societal stability over short-term self-interest. These insights emphasize that structural reform, led by strong and capable institutions, is essential to “flatten the curve” on societal crisis and avoid catastrophic outcomes.