Dynamics of the Polycrisis: Temporal Trends, Spatial Distribution, and Co-occurrences of National Shocks (1970–2019)

The authors investigate the evolving nature of global crises by analyzing the temporal trends, geographic distribution, and co-occurrences of shocks across 175 countries from 1970 to 2019. Their findings reveal that shocks have become increasingly co-occurring until 2000, particularly involving conflict, climate, and technological disruptions, followed by regionally varied patterns of stabilization or decline. By adopting a social-ecological systems approach, the study distinguishes between shocks and creeping changes, offering a framework to understand polycrisis. The authors emphasize that regional differentiation is central to polycrisis dynamics and advocate for integrating polycrisis theory with multi-hazard methodologies to enhance crisis management strategies.