Derailment Risk

This report presents a systematic effort to theorize what the authors call “derailment risk,” a vicious cycle in which escalating climate impacts and the disruptive consequences of green transitions undermine climate action. Drawing on twenty global workshops and hundreds of expert contributions, the project mapped how worsening disasters, resource diversion, and political backlash can derail adaptation and decarbonisation efforts, particularly as the world overshoots 1.5°C. It highlights that derailment risks are already emerging and will intensify without proactive intervention. The report calls for an expanded approach to climate strategy that actively protects transition pathways through improved situational awareness, resilience building, faster decarbonisation, counter-narratives, and governance reforms. Its goal is to inform climate action strategies and strengthen their capacity to navigate the complex challenges of a destabilizing climate future.