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Unraveling the Polycrisis with Foresight and Innovation

This publication introduces the EU Policy Lab’s new Polycrisis Exploration Tool, an adaptable tool for foresight and holistic risk management. Grounded in Wendy Schultz’s Manoa methodology, it uses a participatory and structured approach to explore multiple future wheels, examining how interconnected risks might materialize simultaneously. Drawing on 40 risks identified in the Risks on the […]

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What is this era of calamity we’re in? Some say ‘polycrisis’ captures it

This article examines the concept of polycrisis, explaining how interconnected crises heighten global instability. It highlights the Cascade Institute’s efforts to identify high-leverage intervention points — strategic areas where targeted actions can drive meaningful change. Emphasizing cross-disciplinary collaboration, the article explores how understanding these overlapping crises not only clarifies the complexity of our current moment

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Our Polycrisis Demands a Radically New Approach to Risk Management

Ruth Richardson, the Executive Director of the Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment, argues that the “escalating global polycrisis demands an urgent and transformative shift in how we assess, anticipate, and mitigate systemic risks.” She then suggests a range of practical actions governments could take to better contend with polycrisis, such as creating a Minister for

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A Year in Crises

Tim Sahay surveys the many crises covered in The Polycrisis newsletter over the last year and identifies four key shifts: northern countries are increasingly concerned with their own economic resilience but have not reformed the international financial system, so the global south remains increasingly vulnerable and disadvantaged; the past two years have witnessed more violent

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Why the World Feels so Unstable Right Now

Tim Palmer discusses the challenges of predicting events in nonlinear systems that, by nature, experience intermittent instabilities, as in the famous “butterfly effect”. Today, continued emissions are increasing the instabilities and uncertainties of climate change, while the economy and global health exhibit similar non-linearities. To deal with such uncertainties, he advocates ensemble prediction systems that

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