This report presents the results of a futures exercise led by ASRA to explore novel responses to escalating systemic risks between 2025 and 2045. Using the ParEvo method, a group of experts collaboratively developed storylines in response to a world shaped by compounding crises, culminating in a stress test based on a hypothetical global catastrophic […]
New Responses to Systemic Risks: An Exploration 2025–2045 Read More »
The authors explore the relationship between polycrisis and metacrisis, proposing a three-layer logic model to explain their connection. While polycrisis refers to the entanglement of interconnected global crises that intensify one another, metacrisis points to the foundational conditions that generate these crises. Just as symptoms indicate an underlying illness, polycrisis is seen as a manifestation
From Polycrisis to Metacrisis: a short introduction Read More »
The 2025 Interconnected Disaster Risks report, Turning Over a New Leaf, calls for transformative societal changes to address escalating global crises. It outlines five essential shifts: rethinking waste, realigning with nature, reconsidering responsibility, reimagining the future, and redefining value to prioritize planetary health over economic growth. The report introduces the Theory of Deep Change, advocating
Interconnected Disaster Risks: Turning Over a New Leaf Read More »
This policy brief explores how the humanitarian sector must adapt to increasingly complex polycrisis . It presents key recommendations for reimagining humanitarian aid to prevent a slide into permacrisis, emphasizing the need to shift from reactive, centralized models to locally led, systems-based approaches. Central to this transformation is empowering local actors through meaningful leadership, dismantling
Humanitarian Aid in the Polycrisis: Local and Systems Thinking Approaches Read More »
This report presents the findings of the Munich Security Index 2025—an index of global risk perceptions in the G7 and “BICS” countries. It examines the implications of multipolarization in the international order, emphasizing that current trends indicate the negative effects of greater multipolarity are prevailing, as widening divisions among major powers and competing governance models
Multipolarization – Munich Security Report 2025 Read More »
The GAR 2025 report examines the likely future impacts of the world’s costliest hazards by 2050, considering different demographic trends, urbanization patterns, and climate scenarios. Drawing on new modelling tools and dozens of global examples, it warns that continued risk creation will outpace our ability to reduce it unless disaster risk reduction is embedded into
The Global Risks Report 2025 presents insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025, which gathered input from over 900 experts worldwide. The report analyzes global risks across three timeframes—immediate (2025), short-to medium-term (2027), and long-term (2035)—to help decision-makers navigate current and future challenges.
The Global Risks Report 2025 Read More »
This report highlights the emerging security threat for Europe as global warming rapidly approaches 1.5°C, increasing the systemic risks of crossing multiple Earth System Tipping Points (ESTPs). It emphasizes that climate mitigation action is critical to avoid direct impacts on Europe, such as the collapse of Atlantic Ocean circulation, melting Arctic ice-sheets, and boreal permafrost
Earth System Tipping Points are a threat to Europe Read More »
This report explores the interconnected crises and challenges of biodiversity loss, water availability and quality, food insecurity, health risks, and climate change, focusing on their interlinkages. It assesses current and future trends, emphasizing biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. The report also examines response options and governance strategies to promote coordinated decision-making, minimize trade-offs, and
This paper reviews the findings of a pilot online mapping exercise of emerging risks conducted by the OECD High-Level Risk Forum. Nearly half of the risks shortlisted during the first stage were related to socio-environmental issues, including extreme temperatures and heatwaves, drinking water scarcity, the spread of vector-borne diseases to new areas, climate change-induced mass
Mapping Emerging Critical Risks Read More »
