Societal Collapse Archives - Page 3 of 3

A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Peter Turchin and his colleagues explain their design of a computational method to predict social collapse: multipath forecasting. By incorporating quantitative data (i.e. demography) as well as qualitative data (i.e. cultural value), a system trained on historical data predicts “a history of possible futures, in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically

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Unifying Research on Socio-Ecological Resilience and Collapse

After reviewing different definitions of collapse across several fields, Graeme Cumming and Garry Peterson outline specific criteria with which to assess collapse and apply them to historical and ecological examples. They emphasize the need for standard, testable, definitions and a baseline measurement, or “identity,” of a system to better understand if it has collapsed. “It

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Staving Off the Coming Global Collapse

William E. Rees asserts that humanity is heading to a critical ecological situation that diminishes the prospect of continued civilized existence, and considers why, despite the magnitude of the threat, the world community is not acting sensibly. He further explains how social inequality and the current political agenda obstruct effective action.

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Critical Transitions in Nature and Society

From shallow lakes that flip from clear to turbid water to major climate shifts, big shifts in social norms to the collapse of societies and ecosystems, Marten Scheffer shows that many complex systems undergo “critical transitions” (or “regime shifts”) between multiple stable states (or “equilibria”). In these transitions, slow and often unseen change in a

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Overcoming Systemic Roadblocks to Sustainability: The Evolutionary Redesign of Worldviews, Institutions, and Technologies

The authors propose that socio-ecological systems feature the co-evolution of ecological systems and self-reinforcing complexes of (human) worldviews, institutions, and technologies (WITs). Contemporary WITs arose in a world of abundant resources and immense potential for growth but are now reaching the biophysical limits of the ecosphere. The authors thus advocate a deliberate shift from and

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Global Catastrophic Risks

This book explores global catastrophic risks that threaten civilization and humanity’s continued existence, addressing key methodological, ethical and policy issues. Chapters by leading experts address such risks as astronomical and earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, and social collapse.

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The Perfect Storm: Catastrophic Collapse in the 21st Century

Glen Kuecker argues that we are facing a catastrophic collapse of the global system, citing climate change, ecological destruction, pandemics, fuel shortages, warfare, and global hunger as interconnected points of failure. He suggests that sustainability perspectives miss the fundamental reality of the global crisis.

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