This paper re-examines the principles and precepts of ‘old’ multilateralism in the context of the global polycrisis. It offers an analytical framework for ‘new’ multilateralism in Earth system governance, emphasizing the limitations of Global North–Global South binaries and proposing “patchworks” as flexible, cross-scale pathways for cooperation across policy silos.
The authors propose a conceptual framework for governing polycrisis and systemic risks through a bottom-up, community-based approach. They introduce the “risk governance triangle”, linking persistent disruptive stressors, risk-absorbing systems, and contextual modifiers, and structure these elements using the Pagoda model, which identifies five interrelated layers: natural conditions, institutional arrangements, technical and social infrastructure, the built
The authors examine the complex interplay between climate change and security, offering a systems-based modelling approach to understanding transitions between conflict and cooperation. Drawing on empirical research and the case study of Lake Chad, the article explores how climate risks act as conflict multipliers through tipping points, cascading effects, and multi-agent interactions. Using bi-stable tipping
Tipping Cascades Between Conflict and Cooperation in Climate Change Read More »
This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary
The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping
This paper addresses the challenge of accurately measuring systemic risk by introducing a novel indicator, Expected Shortfall Rank (ESRank), which accounts for cascading failures and network effects often overlooked in traditional models. Using LASSO to construct tail risk networks among financial institutions and ΔCoES to simulate contagion dynamics, the study develops a general cascading failure
Cascading Failure, Financial Network and Systemic Risk Read More »
In this podcast, David Runciman talks to historian Gary Gerstle about how the idea of the polycrisis was originally conceived, what its current popularity reveals about our times, and whether we are truly experiencing a polycrisis or something else entirely. They also explore questions such as: Why is it comforting to think that the crises
The History of Bad Ideas: Polycrisis Read More »
In this webinar, historian Daniel Hoyer examines the concept of the polycrisis through a historical lens. He explores the lessons past societies offer for understanding today’s complex global challenges and discusses the critical role of youth in shaping responses to the current polycrisis.
Youth in the Polycrisis Read More »
In this article, the authors reframe the concept of polycrisis through a decolonial lens, emphasizing the need to center global South experiences in understanding interlocking crises. Drawing on examples such as Pakistan’s climate-induced debt spiral and Puerto Rico’s post-disaster vulnerabilities, the authors argue that colonial legacies and global financial architectures continue to shape crisis dynamics.
Decolonising Polycrisis: Southern Perspectives on Interlocking Crises Read More »
This report examines the complex and compounding challenges facing economies in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). It highlights how overlapping crises—such as armed conflict, institutional fragility, climate-related disasters, commodity price volatility, and global economic shocks—interact to deepen poverty, food insecurity, and deficits in human development across FCS economies. The report calls for targeted, sequenced policy
Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Intertwined Crises, Multiple Vulnerabilities Read More »
