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Cascading Failure, Financial Network and Systemic Risk

This paper addresses the challenge of accurately measuring systemic risk by introducing a novel indicator, Expected Shortfall Rank (ESRank), which accounts for cascading failures and network effects often overlooked in traditional models. Using LASSO to construct tail risk networks among financial institutions and ΔCoES to simulate contagion dynamics, the study develops a general cascading failure […]

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The History of Bad Ideas: Polycrisis

In this podcast, David Runciman talks to historian Gary Gerstle about how the idea of the polycrisis was originally conceived, what its current popularity reveals about our times, and whether we are truly experiencing a polycrisis or something else entirely. They also explore questions such as: Why is it comforting to think that the crises

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Youth in the Polycrisis

In this webinar, historian Daniel Hoyer examines the concept of the polycrisis through a historical lens. He explores the lessons past societies offer for understanding today’s complex global challenges and discusses the critical role of youth in shaping responses to the current polycrisis.

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Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Intertwined Crises, Multiple Vulnerabilities

This report examines the complex and compounding challenges facing economies in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). It highlights how overlapping crises—such as armed conflict, institutional fragility, climate-related disasters, commodity price volatility, and global economic shocks—interact to deepen poverty, food insecurity, and deficits in human development across FCS economies. The report calls for targeted, sequenced policy

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Polycrisis! Implications for Public Policy in the Global South

This book explores contemporary public policy and governance in the Global South, offering comparative analyses and detailed case studies from Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. It examines how governments are navigating 21st-century challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, democratic backsliding, deteriorating public services, and geopolitical shifts linked to the rise

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International Finance and the Global Polycrisis

This article explores the pivotal role of international finance in shaping political responses to four major global crises: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the climate emergency, and the intensifying geoeconomic rivalry between China and the United States. It highlights how financial mobilization has varied across these crises, serving distinct strategic purposes and

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Impact of Global Risks on Economic Downturn in Countries Worldwide: Analysis of the Causes of the Situation and Opportunities for Growth Recovery

The authors examine the impact of global risks on economic growth dynamics across more than 200 countries from 1961 to 2023, revealing a consistent decline in growth rates linked to intertwined geopolitical, economic, social, environmental, and technological risks. Through structural analysis and analytical tools, they identify economic and environmental risks as key contributors to the

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How Can Aid for Trade Support the Resilience of the Least Developed Countries in the Face of Polycrisis?

This article examines the potential of Aid for Trade (AfT) as a tool for building resilience in developing countries and least developed countries amid the growing complexity of global polycrisis. Drawing on evidence from a range of AfT-supported initiatives, it highlights AfT’s capacity to enhance resilience at both macro and micro levels. However, the impact

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Dynamics of the Polycrisis: Temporal Trends, Spatial Distribution, and Co-occurrences of National Shocks (1970–2019)

The authors investigate the evolving nature of global crises by analyzing the temporal trends, geographic distribution, and co-occurrences of shocks across 175 countries from 1970 to 2019. Their findings reveal that shocks have become increasingly co-occurring until 2000, particularly involving conflict, climate, and technological disruptions, followed by regionally varied patterns of stabilization or decline. By

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Turning Polycrisis into Polytunity

In this UNDP expert commentary, Yuen Yuen Ang argues that the convergence of global disruptions should be viewed not only as a period of crisis but also as an opportunity for systemic transformation. She introduces the concept of “polytunity” and proposes an Adaptive, Inclusive, and Moral (AIM) political economy as an alternative framework for addressing

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