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Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis

In this episode, Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, explores the concept of polycrisis, showing how climate change is deeply interconnected with other global challenges across social, economic, and political systems. He highlights how crises reinforce one another, creating complex feedbacks that demand integrated solutions. A central theme is inequality, which shapes […]

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Editorial Introduction to the Special Issue on Polycrisis and Systemic Risks

In this article, the authors introduce a special issue of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science dedicated to the study of polycrisis and systemic risk. Set against the backdrop of increasingly interconnected global disruptions, the issue critiques conventional, linear models of risk and advocates for integrative, inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to analysis, governance, and

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Chartbook 407: Polycrisis Revisited: Are we beyond Neoliberal Order Breakdown Syndrome?

In Chartbook 407, Adam Tooze revisits the concept of polycrisis, examining how overlapping economic, geopolitical, environmental, and social disruptions interact to amplify systemic fragility. He questions whether the world has moved beyond what he terms the Neoliberal Order Breakdown Syndrome, and whether we are witnessing the end of the neoliberal era or merely its transformation.

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Characterizing the Global Polycrisis: A Systematic Review of Recent Literature

The authors examine the concept of polycrisis, a term that has gained prominence for describing the interconnected nature of global challenges. Through a systematic review of 2,299 publications, the results indicate a common understanding of the polycrisis as multiple co-occurring, causally entangled crises with synergistic and cascading effects on multiple systems degrading humanity’s prospects. While

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A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They

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Dimensional characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks

This paper examines catastrophic AI risks using a framework that combines seven risk dimensions: intent, competency, entity, polarity, linearity, reach, and order, along with risk pathway modelling to link hazards to harms. It analyzes six major risk types: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN); cyber offence; sudden and gradual loss of control; environmental; and geopolitical.

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Echoes of Uncertainty: Reimagining Complexity of Global Risks in the Shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict

The authors explore risk perceptions in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Drawing on cross-sectional survey data, the research reveals significant differences in how respondents from both countries perceive a range of global threats. By comparing perceptions of multiple potential risks that individuals may face in the foreseeable future, the

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Coping with Persistent Disruptive Stressors and Polycrisis: Community-Based Policy Making and Local Empowerment

The authors propose a conceptual framework for governing polycrisis and systemic risks through a bottom-up, community-based approach. They introduce the “risk governance triangle”, linking persistent disruptive stressors, risk-absorbing systems, and contextual modifiers, and structure these elements using the Pagoda model, which identifies five interrelated layers: natural conditions, institutional arrangements, technical and social infrastructure, the built

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Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary

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Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

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