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A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They […]

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Dimensional characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks

This paper examines catastrophic AI risks using a framework that combines seven risk dimensions: intent, competency, entity, polarity, linearity, reach, and order, along with risk pathway modelling to link hazards to harms. It analyzes six major risk types: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN); cyber offence; sudden and gradual loss of control; environmental; and geopolitical.

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Echoes of Uncertainty: Reimagining Complexity of Global Risks in the Shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict

The authors explore risk perceptions in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Drawing on cross-sectional survey data, the research reveals significant differences in how respondents from both countries perceive a range of global threats. By comparing perceptions of multiple potential risks that individuals may face in the foreseeable future, the

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Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary

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Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

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Cascading Failure, Financial Network and Systemic Risk

This paper addresses the challenge of accurately measuring systemic risk by introducing a novel indicator, Expected Shortfall Rank (ESRank), which accounts for cascading failures and network effects often overlooked in traditional models. Using LASSO to construct tail risk networks among financial institutions and ΔCoES to simulate contagion dynamics, the study develops a general cascading failure

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The History of Bad Ideas: Polycrisis

In this podcast, David Runciman talks to historian Gary Gerstle about how the idea of the polycrisis was originally conceived, what its current popularity reveals about our times, and whether we are truly experiencing a polycrisis or something else entirely. They also explore questions such as: Why is it comforting to think that the crises

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Youth in the Polycrisis

In this webinar, historian Daniel Hoyer examines the concept of the polycrisis through a historical lens. He explores the lessons past societies offer for understanding today’s complex global challenges and discusses the critical role of youth in shaping responses to the current polycrisis.

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Polycrisis! Implications for Public Policy in the Global South

This book explores contemporary public policy and governance in the Global South, offering comparative analyses and detailed case studies from Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. It examines how governments are navigating 21st-century challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, democratic backsliding, deteriorating public services, and geopolitical shifts linked to the rise

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How Can Aid for Trade Support the Resilience of the Least Developed Countries in the Face of Polycrisis?

This article examines the potential of Aid for Trade (AfT) as a tool for building resilience in developing countries and least developed countries amid the growing complexity of global polycrisis. Drawing on evidence from a range of AfT-supported initiatives, it highlights AfT’s capacity to enhance resilience at both macro and micro levels. However, the impact

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