Systemic Risk And Escalation Dynamics In Global Politics (2026–2027)

This article examines the systemic risks and escalation dynamics shaping global politics in 2026–2027, highlighting how interconnected crises in Venezuela, the Middle East, Ukraine, and Taiwan are contributing to a globally coupled system prone to cascading instability. It argues that the erosion of international norms, intensifying domestic pressures, and overlapping regional conflicts are lowering the threshold for escalation and increasing the likelihood of unintended, multi-theatre confrontations. The report outlines three potential scenarios—unstable containment, regional escalation, and systemic escalation—and underscores the urgent need for renewed political capacity and international coordination to manage this volatile period.