Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon

In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These range from dystopian outcomes such as a “Mad Max” world to more hopeful futures characterized by democracy, resilience, and high well-being. Homer-Dixon highlights recent breakthroughs in identifying the minimal and plausible policy shifts needed to steer toward positive attractor outcomes. These insights, he argues, show that even in the midst of compounding and interacting global crises, there are still coherent and plausible paths toward more just, democratic, and sustainable futures.