The Steepness of the Slope

The author examines the mathematical and systemic nature of civilizational collapse, tracing how societies both ancient and modern follow what he calls the “Seneca Cliff”: a slow ascent of growth and complexity followed by a rapid, self-reinforcing decline. Drawing on complexity theory, systems dynamics, and historical examples such as the Roman Empire, the Maya, and the Soviet Union, the essay shows how delayed negative feedback through resource depletion, ecological overshoot, or diminishing energy returns can abruptly transform prosperity into collapse. The author argues that modern globalized systems, optimized for efficiency and interconnection, have become “robust yet fragile,” where small disruptions can trigger cascading failures across finance, energy, and ecology. By situating today’s ecological and economic crises within this mathematical inevitability, the essay warns that contemporary civilization may be nearing its own tipping point.