Food Trade Disruption After Global Catastrophes

The authors examine how the global food trade system is vulnerable to major shocks such as abrupt sunlight reduction (from nuclear war or volcanic activity) or global infrastructure loss (from severe geomagnetic storms or pandemics). Using a network model, they find that a sunlight reduction event could cause most countries to lose 50%–100% of their food imports due to severe impacts on major exporting nations. In comparison, a catastrophic infrastructure failure would lead to more evenly distributed yield losses, reducing imports by roughly 25%–50%. The analysis shows that while both scenarios would severely disrupt global food trade, sunlight reduction poses the greater threat, underscoring the system’s vulnerability to systemic shocks and the urgent need for international preparedness and resilience planning.