Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis

This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order. The report explains how these stresses can be tracked, modelled, and monitored to reveal shifting systemic fragility and the potential for cascading crises, offering insights for financial sector leaders, regulators, and policymakers on how to shift the focus of risk management from short-term triggers to longer-term systemic stresses.