Tipping Cascades Between Conflict and Cooperation in Climate Change

The authors examine the complex interplay between climate change and security, offering a systems-based modelling approach to understanding transitions between conflict and cooperation. Drawing on empirical research and the case study of Lake Chad, the article explores how climate risks act as conflict multipliers through tipping points, cascading effects, and multi-agent interactions. Using bi-stable tipping models and agent-based simulations, the study demonstrates how internal and external factors—such as forced migration and militant activity—can erode resilience and trigger violent conflict. The authors advocate for adaptive and anticipatory governance (AAG), emphasizing integrative research, civil conflict transformation, and environmental peacebuilding as pathways to foster cooperative responses and support Earth system stability.