It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures

The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability and analysing potential scenarios. While the likelihood of specific GCFF scenarios remains uncertain, forecasts over the century indicate a probability greater than 10 percent for each of the following: a large climate-altering volcanic eruption, a nuclear war, and a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).