New Responses to Systemic Risks: An Exploration 2025–2045

This report presents the results of a futures exercise led by ASRA to explore novel responses to escalating systemic risks between 2025 and 2045. Using the ParEvo method, a group of experts collaboratively developed storylines in response to a world shaped by compounding crises, culminating in a stress test based on a hypothetical global catastrophic event. The exploration revealed four key response pathways: citizen-led, multilateral, economy-focused, and nature-centered. These illustrate how transformative governance, localized resilience, eco-ethical frameworks, and alternative economic models could evolve in the face of polycrisis. The report underscores the urgent need to strengthen imaginative capacity, participatory systems, and adaptive skills to navigate deepening uncertainty, while noting that many seeds of these transformative responses already exist today.