The research examines the risk of climate tipping under various temperature overshoot scenarios using a simplified network model. It shows that temporary overshoots can increase the tipping risks up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios. It suggests that to avoid high-end climate risks, low-temperature overshoots and stabilization of long-term temperatures at or below current levels of global warming are necessary.
Global Warming Overshoots Increase Risks of Climate Tipping Cascades in a Network Model
Author(s)
Nico Wunderling, Ricarda Winkelmann, Johan Rockström, Sina Loriani, David I. Armstrong McKay, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Boris Sakschewski, and Jonathan F. Donges
Publication Date
22 December 2022
Publisher
Nature Climate Change (vol. 13)
DOI / URL
Resource Type
Academic Journal Article
Systems Addressed
Climate
Resource Theme
Systemic Risk