Global Catastrophic Risk from Lower Magnitude Volcanic Eruptions

The authors argue that moderate volcanic eruptions might have cascading, catastrophic effects. They identify seven global “pinch points” where volcanic hazards intersect with concentrated systems such as shipping routes, air transportation, submarine communication cables, trade networks, and key industries, creating pathways for local disruptions to cascade through the global economy. The authors argue that globalisation and the prioritisation of efficiency over resilience have increased these systemic vulnerabilities, meaning that the scale of an eruption does not necessarily correspond to the scale of its consequences. They call for volcanic risk assessments to incorporate cascading systemic failures and recommend systems mapping, horizon scanning, event-tree analysis, and interdisciplinary expertise to identify vulnerabilities and strengthen resilience to global catastrophic risks.